Marine fuel buyers spent this week dealing with two kinds of uncertainty at once.
Physical fuel-oil stocks were reported well below normal in major hubs. Prompt cover was tight in ARA, Gibraltar and several East of Suez ports. At the same time, Rotterdam biofuel prices and Dutch compliance-ticket values swung sharply, while the IMO debate kept the future value of lower-GHG fuels unsettled.
The industry's answer cannot be another naked price column. Buyers need to know what can be delivered, when, by whom and with which compliance and sustainability evidence attached. Suppliers need requests that make those requirements clear enough to quote properly.
Here are the ten developments that mattered most in marine fuel this week.
1. Refinery pressure raised the risk of a fuel-oil shortfall
Reuters reported that fuel oil could face a 218,000 barrel-per-day deficit in the third quarter as conflict disrupts refining and tanker traffic, while refiners favour higher-value products. Stocks were reported about 30% below three-year seasonal averages in Singapore, ARA and Fujairah.
That does not guarantee a shortage at every port. It does mean buyers should expect the relationship between benchmark price, supplier cover and quote validity to become less forgiving. Bulugo's bunker price view is useful market context, but an executable price still needs a supplier, grade, quantity, delivery window and expiry behind it.
2. Rotterdam biofuel prices showed why the comparison needs context
Friday's ENGINE snapshot showed Rotterdam B30-VLSFO down $19/mt over the week while conventional VLSFO rose $17/mt. B100 ended at $1,327/mt, up $23/mt week on week, after falling earlier in the week and rebounding sharply on Friday. Dutch ZRE A compliance-ticket prices were also volatile, finishing at EUR200/mtCO2e after reaching EUR283 on Thursday.
That late-week reversal matters. An early-week biofuel discount is not a standing supplier offer. Buyers should compare the same blend, feedstock, delivery period and compliance basis, and keep physical prices separate from estimates adjusted for calorific content, EU ETS or FuelEU Maritime. The number only becomes useful when its assumptions travel with it.
3. Rotterdam and Gibraltar showed the cost of poor timing
By Friday, Rotterdam LSMGO had risen $54/mt in a day while Gibraltar LSMGO fell $28/mt. That narrowed Gibraltar's premium over Rotterdam by $82/mt, showing how quickly a port comparison can change even within the same grade.
Physical delivery remained difficult in Gibraltar. ENGINE reported around 24 vessels waiting on Friday morning, with some suppliers more than 24 hours behind schedule and recommended lead times of 10 to 12 days. Strong easterly winds forecast for 12 to 14 September were another risk, not a confirmed stoppage. A cheaper benchmark can quickly stop looking cheap if the stem cannot be delivered within the vessel's window.
4. An IMO multiplier emerged as a possible green-fuel incentive
IBIA's Dr Edmund Hughes said China's proposed multiplier for zero and near-zero fuels could offer a non-cash route around the deadlock over an IMO-administered fund. Wider use of surplus units could reward cleaner fuels without requiring the same central revenue mechanism.
It is a proposal, not a rule. The official IMO summary says detailed implementation and lifecycle work moves to the next working-group session in November. Procurement teams should preserve lifecycle intensity, methodology version and the assumed compliance value behind today's choice, because those assumptions may need to be recalculated.
5. Dual-fuel ships solved only the vessel side of the problem
A Seatrade Maritime panel argued that more dual-fuel ships have reduced the technical side of shipping's fuel dilemma, but they have not closed the green-fuel price gap. Those vessels can still run on conventional fuel, while producers often need longer offtake agreements than operators are prepared to sign.
Hardware flexibility is useful, but demand becomes real only when somebody orders the fuel and accepts the commercial risk. A modern marine fuel procurement process should make that risk visible through clear specifications, comparable offers, delivery constraints and contract assumptions.
6. Green-fuel proof moved beyond paperwork
An NTU Singapore-led study called for chemical testing or fuel fingerprinting alongside sustainability certificates. It also recommended stronger cross-checks and a central transaction database to reduce feedstock fraud and prevent the same batch being claimed twice.
The proposals are not current mandatory delivery rules, but the direction is sensible. A green label is too blunt. Buyers need the physical batch, feedstock or production pathway, chain-of-custody model, lifecycle value, certificate and claimant linked in one auditable record.
7. Singapore put trusted bunker data on the agenda
On Thursday, MPA deputy chief executive David Foo said Singapore was working with industry on the next phase of digital bunkering, trialling capabilities to strengthen the integrity and quality of data shared between stakeholders and the authority. Manifold Times reported the remarks on 10 September.
That is a useful distinction: digitising a document is not the same as making its information reliable. Buyers and suppliers need consistent quantities, grades, delivery records and supporting evidence that can be checked across the transaction. The announcement describes work and trials in progress, not a new universal requirement or proof that every supply chain is already connected.
8. East of Suez prices rose while supply remained uneven
ENGINE's Friday update reported daily VLSFO increases of $18/mt in Fujairah and Zhoushan and $10/mt in Singapore. Fujairah's VLSFO premium over Singapore reached $54/mt, while availability of all major grades remained very tight amid disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Sri Lanka offered a different picture: major grades were available at Colombo and Hambantota, but one supplier recommended around seven days' notice rather than four. Route alternatives only help when buyers compare the same grade, quantity and delivery period, with local availability and lead times included. A price gap alone does not prove that another port is a workable substitute.
9. Damen chose flexibility for its next tug platform
Damen selected Everllence's 175D engine for a new range of harbour and escort tugs. The platform supports diesel and 100% biofuel now, with a route to methanol dual-fuel operation for newbuilds and retrofits.
That gives operators options, not certainty. Port craft still need confirmed fuel specifications, sustainable feedstock and certification where claimed, supplier availability and a delivery plan. Multi-fuel capability is most valuable when procurement data can compare those options consistently.
10. Klaipeda strengthened Baltic LNG logistics
KN Energies said the 12,000 cubic metre bunker vessel Titan Vision arrived in Klaipeda on 8 September for its first reload there, with more than 11,000 cubic metres due to be transferred. The terminal reported 65 ship-to-ship LNG operations so far this year, including 36 involving small-scale LNG vessels.
The transfer was described as under way, so it should not yet be called completed. The more useful signal is a strengthening regional logistics chain. Even then, LNG and BioLNG require different pathway, lifecycle and certification evidence. A vessel and terminal can handle both without making them commercially equivalent.
The Bulugo view
This week's stories look varied: low stocks, barge queues, biofuel discounts, an IMO policy idea, certification safeguards, digital delivery records and LNG reloads.
They point to one procurement problem. A benchmark without timing is not executable. A green-fuel discount without its methodology is easy to misread. A certificate without a physical and transaction trail is hard to defend. A dual-fuel vessel without contracted supply can keep burning its conventional fallback.
Buyers and suppliers need a cleaner record of the decision: structured requirements, comparable quotes, confirmed delivery constraints, compliance assumptions and supporting evidence in one place. That is how a volatile market becomes easier to buy from and easier to supply.
Sources
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Ship fuel shortage looms as refiners strained by war favour other products, Reuters dateline 7 September 2026.
- ENGINE: Biofuel Bunker Snapshot, rising ZRE A ticket price weighs on Rotterdam bio-bunker prices, dated 11 September 2026.
- ENGINE: Europe and Africa Market Update, dated 11 September 2026.
- Ship & Bunker: Multiplier could replace cash rewards for green fuels if IMO fund falls, published 9 September 2026. Official IMO ISWG-GHG 22 summary.
- Seatrade Maritime: Dual-fuel ships solve only half of shipping's green fuel dilemma, published 8 September 2026.
- Manifold Times: NTU Singapore-led study urges robust fuel certification, published 9 September 2026.
- Manifold Times: MPA working with industry on next phase of digital bunkering, published 10 September 2026.
- ENGINE: East of Suez Market Update, dated 11 September 2026.
- Everllence: Everllence and Damen sign framework agreement for the 175D engine, published 7 September 2026.
- Manifold Times: Titan Vision LNG reload underscores Klaipeda's Baltic bunkering role, published 9 September 2026.